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# Global drought is intensifying in places, but a new analysis finds no widespread acceleration
- URL: https://intelligence.wildlandseco.com/2026-09-13-global-drought-acceleration-metric-choice/
- Published: 2026-09-13T17:44:01.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-13T17:44:01.000Z
- Description: A 1981–2024 analysis argues that commonly used Penman-type drought metrics can substantially overstate the rate at which drought is worsening.
- Author: Benjamin Worlund
- Tags: drought metrics, evapotranspiration, hydroclimate, trend attribution, Climate, Water, Methods, #ecological-intelligence, #brief-2026-09-13, #counter-signal, #peer-reviewed, #geo-global

Evidence

Peer-reviewed

Geography

Quasi-global land area

System

Terrestrial hydroclimate

## WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS

Using six potential-evapotranspiration formulations within SPEI, researchers found Penman-type methods produced drying trends at least six times stronger than energy-based formulations across several drought metrics. Neither approach detected significant acceleration in drought trends across roughly 99% of quasi-global land, including longer historical checks.

## WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ

The counter-signal is methodological, not complacent: climate change can intensify drought regionally while the claim of widespread recent acceleration remains sensitive to how atmospheric demand is represented. Adaptation decisions should distinguish trend, acceleration and metric artifact.

## CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY

The result concerns global-scale acceleration, not whether drought risk is increasing in particular regions. SPEI is one drought framework among several, and ecological impacts depend on precipitation, soils, vegetation and water management as well as atmospheric demand.

## SOURCE

Communications Earth & Environment · Original evidence  
[View original evidence ↗](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03954-6?ref=intelligence.wildlandseco.com)

From the Morning Brief · 2026-09-13

[Read the full Morning Brief →](https://intelligence.wildlandseco.com/morning-brief-2026-09-13/)