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# Climate reanalysis performed well in Brazil—with a hot-season bias
- URL: https://intelligence.wildlandseco.com/2026-10-21-brazil-era5-land-monthly-heat-bias/
- Published: 2026-10-21T14:11:19.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-21T14:11:19.000Z
- Description: Monthly temperatures in Mato Grosso were checked against fourteen stations.
- Author: Benjamin Worlund
- Tags: Mato Grosso, ERA5 Land, temperature bias, ground truth, Climate, Methods, #ecological-intelligence, #brief-2026-10-21, #global-radar, #peer-reviewed, #geo-latin-america-caribbean

Evidence

Peer-reviewed

Geography

Mato Grosso, Brazil

System

Land-climate observation and GIS

## WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS

Monthly ERA5-Land temperatures for 2010–2024 generally had root-mean-square errors below one degree Celsius relative to fourteen stations, but overestimated several hot September–October periods. Accuracy varied spatially.

## WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ

Reanalysis products fill observation gaps; local calibration becomes especially important when a project depends on seasonal heat exposure.

## CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY

This monthly validation does not establish the quality of hourly extremes, microsites or vegetation-response estimates; station coverage is sparse.

## SOURCE

Theoretical and Applied Climatology — e Silva et al. (2026)  
[View original evidence ↗](https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06676-z?ref=intelligence.wildlandseco.com)

From the Morning Brief · 2026-10-21

[Read the full Morning Brief →](https://intelligence.wildlandseco.com/morning-brief-2026-10-21/)