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# Nigeria's urban expansion fragmented nature even as built-up patches joined
- URL: https://intelligence.wildlandseco.com/2026-10-21-oye-ekiti-urban-fragmentation/
- Published: 2026-10-21T14:11:24.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-21T14:11:24.000Z
- Description: Land-cover classifications document growth; a model explores one possible future.
- Author: Benjamin Worlund
- Tags: Nigerian cities, landscape fragmentation, urban planning, Cities, Land, #ecological-intelligence, #brief-2026-10-21, #landscape-city-watch, #peer-reviewed, #geo-africa

Evidence

Peer-reviewed

Geography

Oye-Ekiti, Nigeria

System

Urban land cover and habitat fragmentation

## WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS

Built-up land increased from 3.12 square kilometres in 1987 to 94.23 in 2025, while forest decreased from 70.44 to 49.77\. Landscape metrics reflect natural-cover fragmentation, and a cellular automata–Markov model projects additional conversion by 2065.

## WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ

Urban design needs to measure ecological patch configuration, stormwater pathways and connectivity, not only percent green cover.

## CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY

Historical maps have classification uncertainty; the 2065 results are modeled scenarios, not confirmed development or measured wildlife responses.

## SOURCE

Discover Sustainability — Salau and Akinyemi (2026)  
[View original evidence ↗](https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-04873-4?ref=intelligence.wildlandseco.com)

From the Morning Brief · 2026-10-21

[Read the full Morning Brief →](https://intelligence.wildlandseco.com/morning-brief-2026-10-21/)