WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
A global modeling study combined projected coastal inundation with environmental suitability for 122 established non-native marine animal species. It estimates that roughly 290,000–470,000 km² of land projected to be inundated by mid- to late century could become environmentally suitable, with more than two-thirds of modeled inundated land suitable for at least one focal species and particularly strong exposure in mid-latitude estuaries.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
Sea-level rise is not only moving a shoreline; it is creating a new ecological interface. Coastal adaptation, restoration and monitoring plans may need to treat newly inundating land as an emerging invasion surface before colonization is obvious, especially where ports, estuaries and disturbed shorelines already supply propagules.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
This is prospective habitat-suitability modeling, not observation of future colonization or ecological damage. Suitability does not establish arrival, establishment or impact, and results depend on inundation scenarios, environmental predictors and the 122 non-native animals included in the analysis.
SOURCE
Nature Ecology & Evolution
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