Marine food-web indicators can change when uncertainty is carried through the model instead of hidden

Three neighboring Northeast U.S. shelf food-web models produced different ecosystem-indicator distributions once parameter uncertainty was propagated, complicating simple comparisons of resilience or maturity.

Wild Lands Ecological Intelligence Editor
Wild Lands Institute · 20 September 2026

Evidence: Peer-reviewed
Geography: Northeast U.S. continental shelf
System: Marine food webs and ecosystem-based fisheries assessment

WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS

An Ecological Applications study used three neighboring mass-balanced food-web models and a Bayesian uncertainty framework to propagate uncertainty in trophic parameters into ecosystem indicators. The model ensembles produced meaningful differences in metrics such as relative ascendancy and energetic efficiency, linked in part to differences in benthic versus pelagic organization.

WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ

Ecosystem indicators become more decision-useful when their uncertainty travels with them. A single food-web score can look precise enough to rank systems or management states even when plausible parameter values materially change that comparison.

CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY

These are model-derived ecosystem indicators, not direct measurements of resilience or fishery performance. The three models share some regional data sources, and conceptual links between indicators and resilience should not be treated as experimentally demonstrated causal relationships.

SOURCE

Ecological Applications
View original evidence ↗