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Change the map scale and Hangzhou Bay’s ecological trend changes with it

A 25-year remote-sensing analysis found coarse administrative units made improvement look more widespread while hiding local opposing trends along urban corridors and the bay.

Evidence
Peer-reviewed
Geography
Hangzhou Bay Urban Agglomeration, China
System
Urban / coastal metropolitan landscape

WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS

A Google Earth Engine analysis tracked a remote-sensing ecological index from 2000–2024 at 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-km grids and county scale. The regional RSEI increased by about 0.0423 overall, but the share classified as improving rose from 75.34% at 1 km to 84.25% at county scale, demonstrating how aggregation can hide opposing local trajectories. Land-use intensity was the strongest SHAP contributor in the explanatory model.

WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ

For metropolitan ecological planning, scale is part of the result. County or city averages can be useful for screening, but site and corridor decisions need nested spatial analysis so local degradation is not erased by improvement elsewhere.

CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY

RSEI combines greenness, wetness, dryness and surface temperature; it is not a direct biodiversity or ecosystem-integrity measure. The study is observational and cannot assign causal effects to land use or policy, and its machine-learning validation was not designed as a strict spatial or temporal holdout test.

SOURCE

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
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