WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
A 1982–2020 analysis found persistent vegetation greening across global drylands alongside increasing interannual variability over much of the domain. Increasing seasonal maxima and declining minima can coexist in the same long-term record, while dynamic global vegetation models did not reproduce all of the observed variability and divergent trajectories.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
A positive long-term vegetation trend is not automatically a resilience signal. Managers and analysts should pair average greenness with variability, minima and climate sensitivity when judging whether drylands are becoming more secure or more volatile.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
Leaf-area index is a remotely sensed vegetation indicator rather than a direct measure of ecosystem function or state transition. The analysis supports increasing variability but does not show that all greening drylands are crossing degradation thresholds.
SOURCE
Nature Climate Change
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