Drylands can green and become less stable at the same time
WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
A 1982–2020 analysis found persistent vegetation greening across global drylands alongside increasing interannual variability over much of the domain. Increasing seasonal maxima and declining minima can coexist in the same long-term record, while dynamic global vegetation models did not reproduce all of the observed variability and divergent trajectories.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
A positive long-term vegetation trend is not automatically a resilience signal. Managers and analysts should pair average greenness with variability, minima and climate sensitivity when judging whether drylands are becoming more secure or more volatile.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
Leaf-area index is a remotely sensed vegetation indicator rather than a direct measure of ecosystem function or state transition. The analysis supports increasing variability but does not show that all greening drylands are crossing degradation thresholds.
SOURCE
Nature Climate Change
View original evidence ↗
EvidencePeer-reviewedGeographyGlobal drylandsSystemDrylands / rangelands WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS A 1982–2020 analysis found persistent vegetation greening across global drylands alongside increasing interannual variability over much of the domain. Increasing seasonal
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