WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
A spatial scenario study of the Yangtze River Delta compared future urbanization and ecological-protection pathways through 2035. It projected major built-up expansion under a development-oriented scenario and relatively small net ecological-space gains under protection assumptions; important inherited connectivity bottlenecks persisted even in the more favorable scenario.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
A planning rule that slows habitat conversion does not necessarily restore connections already severed by infrastructure. Effective blue-green network plans should distinguish avoided loss, restored passage and feasible long-term management.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
These are model scenarios, not measured 2035 outcomes or validated animal movements. Land-cover definitions, scenario inputs and spatial resolution constrain quantitative forecasts; accepted journal version awaits final formatting.
SOURCE
Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · Yangtze Delta urban-connectivity scenario study
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