WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
Bias-corrected CMIP6 simulations using a fixed historical SPI baseline suggest more moderate dry years and longer, more severe drought sequences across many of 82 microregions, especially under higher-emissions scenarios.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
A reservoir or watershed plan must track persistence, duration and spatial coincidence, not just drought-event counts.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
Precipitation-based scenarios are not forecasts of exact local streamflow or groundwater and carry model variation.
SOURCE
Natural Hazards — Rolim et al. (2026)
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