WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
A study combining a CASA productivity model with estimated heterotrophic soil respiration reconstructed 2000–2023 cropland net ecosystem productivity. The modeled carbon sink fluctuated upward historically, with regional associations involving straw return, fertilizers, irrigation and cropping intensity; CMIP6-based scenarios projected an overall future decrease.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
Historic modeled gains do not guarantee persistent sequestration. Spatial management decisions should distinguish remote-sensing productivity, modeled soil respiration, and direct carbon-stock measurements.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
Net ecosystem productivity was modeled, not directly measured as soil-carbon-stock change. Management associations cannot isolate causality, and future scenarios inherit crop, soil respiration and climate-model uncertainties.
SOURCE
Scientific Reports — 30 Oct 2026, accepted peer-reviewed article
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