WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
MaxEnt suitability models for Pomacea canaliculata and Pontederia crassipes fit observed distributions with test AUCs of about 0.84 and 0.94 respectively. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the modeled snail habitat generally expands, whereas water-hyacinth suitability initially expands and then contracts in later periods. Temperature and terrain contributions differ between species.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
Joint invasion plans should not treat all alien aquatic organisms as interchangeable climate winners. Surveillance routes can use species-specific suitability layers as hypotheses, checked against observed spread.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
These are habitat-suitability projections, not observed future invasions. AUC measures discrimination of modeled occurrences rather than validated establishment, and human transport, hydrologic connectivity and biotic interactions remain incompletely modeled.
SOURCE
Environmental Earth Sciences — 30 Oct 2026
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