Socotra's rare damselfly may shift refugia rather than only lose habitat
WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
A MaxEnt and spatial-hotspot analysis projected habitat suitability for the Near Threatened Socotra bluet under several climate scenarios. Models indicated a redistribution of suitability rather than uniform contraction; very-high-suitability land was modeled at 2.3% currently and up to 16–19% in several future scenarios. Persistent hotspot clusters concentrated in the eastern Hagher/Hajhir highlands.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
Protection of scarce island freshwater should begin with water sources and field verification, not a binary range-loss map. The study provides testable survey targets across the archipelago.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
Published October 5, not a new October 16 field observation. Model discrimination was moderate (AUC around 0.75–0.76); scenario-based suitability does not prove future freshwater availability, occupancy, population expansion or secure habitat.
SOURCE
Omanakuttan et al. · BMC Ecology and Evolution · Socotra habitat model (5 Oct 2026)
View original evidence ↗
A model from October 5 identifies eastern highland freshwater areas as potential priorities—but projected suitability is not verified occupancy.
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