Negative vegetation extremes are covering more land—even though event frequency is not rising as clearly
WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
An event-based analysis of global leaf-area-index data from 2001–2024 found extreme negative vegetation-growth events showed a significant increase in affected area of about 394,471 km² per year (p=0.04), reaching 39% of global land area in 2024. Event frequency also trended upward by 0.07% per year, but that trend was not statistically significant (p=0.13). Drought alone and drought compounded with heat or wildfire coincided with roughly 58.5–59.8% of events. High-emissions projections suggest substantially wider future exposure.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
The split between area and frequency matters: ecological stress can become more spatially extensive without a clean increase in how often events are counted. Tracking only event counts would miss that expansion.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
Leaf-area-index anomalies are remotely sensed vegetation responses, not direct measures of mortality, biodiversity loss or carbon flux. Coincidence with drought-related compound events does not by itself establish event-level causation, and future projections depend on scenario and model assumptions.
SOURCE
Global Change Biology — primary study
View original evidence ↗
Global LAI data show the affected area of extreme negative vegetation events increased significantly from 2001–2024, while the frequency trend was weaker and not statistically significant.
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