Global drought is intensifying in places, but a new analysis finds no widespread acceleration
WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
Using six potential-evapotranspiration formulations within SPEI, researchers found Penman-type methods produced drying trends at least six times stronger than energy-based formulations across several drought metrics. Neither approach detected significant acceleration in drought trends across roughly 99% of quasi-global land, including longer historical checks.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
The counter-signal is methodological, not complacent: climate change can intensify drought regionally while the claim of widespread recent acceleration remains sensitive to how atmospheric demand is represented. Adaptation decisions should distinguish trend, acceleration and metric artifact.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
The result concerns global-scale acceleration, not whether drought risk is increasing in particular regions. SPEI is one drought framework among several, and ecological impacts depend on precipitation, soils, vegetation and water management as well as atmospheric demand.
SOURCE
Communications Earth & Environment · Original evidence
View original evidence ↗
A 1981–2024 analysis argues that commonly used Penman-type drought metrics can substantially overstate the rate at which drought is worsening.
Read the Wild Lands assessment →