WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
Across nine years, 2,914 detection/non-detection observations during 1,911 visits informed a multi-scale occupancy model. Basin-wide range advance had slowed, yet carp populations persisted at occupied sites. Silver carp used lower-flow off-channel refuges, and bighead carp estimates were weak with only 24 detections.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
Build monitoring designs around invasion-front location, habitat-specific detectability, site persistence and changing flow. Repeated low detections require effort-adjusted inference, not an automatic conclusion that control has succeeded.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
Model estimates for bighead carp are uncertain; the study does not experimentally demonstrate removal efficacy, an invasion stop or absence upstream.
SOURCE
Shepta et al. · Biological Invasions · Ohio River carp occupancy model
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