WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
Using land-use change data and difference-in-differences comparisons at 16,627 mines, researchers estimated 187,000 hectares of direct dense-forest loss. They attributed a further 8.0-percentage-point increase in forest clearing within 1 km relative to comparison areas, with effects detectable as far as 20 km. On average, each hectare of directly mined forest was associated with 34 additional hectares of off-site loss within five years.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
Environmental impact assessments that only map the excavated site can miss the landscape created around it: roads, settlements, agriculture and induced access. This June study is included as an uncovered foundational result, not misrepresented as a new October paper.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
These are modeled counterfactual estimates from historical satellite land-use data, not direct attribution of every cleared hectare to one operator. Mine types, contexts and spatial/time horizons vary; the 34-to-1 is a continental average, not a universal project multiplier.
SOURCE
Nature — Morton et al. (3 Jun 2026)
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