Tarim Basin water savings remain a cropping-scenario estimate
WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
Using crop and climate data from 2000–2020, researchers simulated alternative crop mixes. Their least water-demanding evaluated scenario combined no rice, 10% cotton, 30% wheat and 60% maize, yielding an estimated 965 million cubic metres of potential savings; drip irrigation could add another modeled increment.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
Farm economics, crop viability, water allocation and actual withdrawal monitoring determine whether modeled savings are achievable.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
This is a modeled scenario, not an observed reduction in withdrawals or a verified policy outcome.
SOURCE
Applied Water Science — Lin et al. (2026)
View original evidence ↗
Modeled crop substitution and wider drip irrigation could save blue water in arid northwest China.
Read the Wild Lands assessment →