Moonlight's apparent effect on lion movement changed with the model definition
WHAT THE EVIDENCE SAYS
Researchers reapplied predictors from six influential lion papers to one collar dataset, then compared fifteen candidate models of moon phase, moonrise, clouds and twilight. Four of six inherited methods found significant moonlight effects but not the same pattern; their best candidate fixed effects explained less than 1.2% of lion step-length variation.
WHY IT MATTERS / OUR READ
A wildlife behavior signal can be shaped by the way an environmental covariate is defined. Sensitivity checks and transparent methods may be as important as the reported p-value.
CAVEATS / UNCERTAINTY
These models concerned step length of lions in one Namibian study, not every nocturnal behavior, prey interaction or African lion population.
SOURCE
Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology — primary methodological reanalysis
View original evidence ↗
Six ways of coding the same Namibian GPS data generated inconsistent inferences; even better models explained little movement variability.
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